Uncertainty Representation in Robust and Reliability-Based Design

Event Logstics

This workshop is organized as part of the ASME International Design Engineering Technical Conferences (DETC) & Computers and Information in Engineering Conference (CIE).

Date: September 10, 2006
Time:   1:15pm to 4:30pm
Location: Sheraton Philadelphia City Center Hotel
Room:  Freedom 5, Mezzanine Level

Organizers

• Jason Aughenbaugh, University of Texas, Austin
• Zissimos Mourelatos, Oakland University
• Chris Paredis, Georgia Institute of Technology

Objectives and Topics

In this workshop, several different uncertainty representations for robust and reliability-based design will be evaluated and compared. Experienced researchers will present different approaches towards uncertainty representation and decision making under uncertainty, addressing specific criteria for determining the suitability of these representations in the context of design. Such criteria include among others: clarity in the semantics of the uncertainty representation, rigor and consistency of the underlying mathematical formalism, ease of computation, and suitability for decision making. The intent of the workshop is to spawn a discussion among researchers interested in uncertainty in design — a discussion that focuses on the interpretation of different uncertainty representations and how they can and should be used in support of design decision making. In the current literature, much of the focus in robust and reliability-based design is on improving the computational efficiency of specific analysis and optimization algorithms. As more researchers become interested and involved in this area, it is important that the community does not lose track of the basic concepts and philosophies underlying these algorithms. Currently, little attention is being paid to some of the fundamental philosophical differences that still exist within the community. In this workshop, these different perspectives will be presented, compared, evaluated, and discussed, with the intent to increase awareness and understanding of these sometimes complex issues.

Intended Audience

Researchers, Scholars and students in Robust Design, Reliability-Based Design and Design under Uncertainty in general. The DAC track on Simulation-Based Design under Uncertainty typically draws a large audience; it is anticipated that most of the participants in that track will also have interest in this workshop.

Speakers

• Jason Aughenbaugh (University of Texas, Austin – ARL)
• Wei Chen (Northwestern University, Mech Eng)
• Scott Ferson (Applied Biomathematics)
• Zissimos Mourelatos (Oakland University, Mech Eng)
• Chris Paredis (Georgia Tech, Mech Eng)

Workshop Agenda

1:15 – 1:25: Welcome and introduction (Chris Paredis)
1:25 – 1:45: Criteria for evaluating uncertainty representations (Jason Aughenbaugh)
1:45 – 2:15: Probability Theory (Wei Chen)
2:15 – 2:45: Imprecise Probability Theory (Scott Ferson)
2:45 – 3:00: Coffee Break
3:00 – 3:30: Possibility and Evidence Theory (Zissimos Mourelatos)
3:30 – 4:30: Discussion (Chris Paredis)